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Simply put in Americas alone UC3 has more pre orders than UC2 had at this point before its release.

Uncharted 2 September 5 2009 (6 weeks before release) 40,408 pre orders.

Uncharted 3 September 24 2011 (6 weeks before release) 248,658 pre orders.

Just look at the numbers man. UC3 will most certainly do better than UC2. So will it bomb in relation to Sony standards? no. Will it sell less than Halo series games yes, but Uncharted 3 will be at the top of Sony exclusive game sales within the next couple of years.