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Assuming the reports of production costs being halved is true, they will wait until November to cut price of both SKU's. The depth of the cut will depend on 360 cut and PS3 sales.

If 360's price cut is $100 come GTA4 and helps them tremendously, Sony may have to act quick, but that might limit the size of their cut.

If MS price cut is smaller or makes little difference it relieves pressure and they can wait a bit, and won't need a big cut.

In the end, though, I'm expecting another $100 knocked off by November. MS will cut deep ($100), but it won't help them so much that Sony will have to match. They will save the new price for the holiday so they can play it up for the industries biggest season.