I think this depends on how few PSVita's Sony is willing to sell! I think Vita won't do as well as the PSP for multiple reasons.
-Nintendo is taking Japan (MH and other exclusives), no Nintendo isn't about to let MH go to PSP. Nintendo is bound to give Capcom plenty of incentives to keep MH exclusive.
-A large reason PSP sold was piracy. Nobody paid for games, UMD's or music. Well I did but I was rare. Vita however has been said to have much tougher security measures in place to stop piracy.
-Price, 3DS showed that gamers aren't willing to pay 250-300$ for a handheld. PSVita will have a hard time convincing gamers to shell out that kind of dough. I could see Sony cutting hardware prices by winter 2012 in a move similar to Nintendo's.
-Software, unlike 3DS Sony lacks any exclusive heavy hitters. Other then the few first party titles available there is nothing on the system that will push hardware.
-Smart phones are no doubt going to lessen both Sony and Nintendo's over all sales.
-Battery life, consumers have spoken and 3 hours is not good enough. There will be many waiting for the next model to have an improved battery. Or picking up the extra battery expansion!
-Lack of the holiday season, missing 2011 Christmas is Sony's biggest mistake. Sales will not be that high with a spring launch and by the time next Christmas comes 3DS will be in a very strong position!
-HD, drives dev costs higher so developers will see far more profit from 3DS titles even if they sold equal quantities on PSVita!
The only things I see going for PSVita is PlayStation Suite and the support they are receiving from western publishers which Nintendo has lost. If Sony can successfully market the Vita in EMEAA then they have a chance at survival, North America will complement it but without MH and other Japanese exclusives Sony doesn't stand a chance in Japan!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
