Will the launch of PSV affect PS3 sales in Japan?

[Michael-5]

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

Michael-5 said:

So you think PS3 will outsell the 360 by an average of 35% over the next three years? I really doubt that. Sony said they won't loose profit to win second place, and I honestly feel MS is toying with PS3. I mean they are selling the 360 for $50 more then the PS3 now, and it's a cheaper system to make. if you say so. MS may have us all fool'd but that doesn't change wht i see. the thing is many more people are waiting for PS3 to cost less, and the arcade model gave MS away. theres not much leverage MS has at this point, but like i've said in every doom thread made in the past yr. don't underestimate the big3. i may have my predictions but if the big3 think like i think then those predictions change. if they do wht i think they should do then those prediction change and if they don't i either keep them the same or lower them. my predictions are based on how stupid the big3 are rather then wht i think they'll do.

its my beleif that you can market a product for ever if you know how to do it. PS2 still manages to sell with no marketing in north america(well you can tell me about canada, and i have no idea about mexico). whether thats signifigant or not is anybodies guess but wht MS hiding changes nothing. 

i former member(he's permabanned) argued with me telling me i should care about my predictions but the fact of the matter is they change so often i don't have time to care. as you can see theres nothing but vita in my sig and i only care how vits preforms. strangely enough i like how 3DS is doing and those who don't are over reacting.

You agree with me, it's hard to predict future sales this year. I'm just skeptical of PS3 toping 360 anytime soon. If PS3 tops 360, it will be after both systems are replaced, and at that point, does it matter? X-Box passed GCN late into last gen, but no one really cares anymore. yea even if PS3 passes 360 tomorrow it would be a very mute point meanning in this case noone would care but many would bragg and it would be 2007 all over again. PS3 first 2 yrs on the market(do the math)have all been better then MS's so in its on time period not the 360's 6 yrs but the PS3's 5 yrs PS3 has sold better then 360 in its 5 yrs hins PS3 has sold better then 360 regardless, but its not something i like getting into.

in 360's 6 yrs PS3 has sold better but in PS3's 5 y'rs 360 sold better. the difference is PS3's 5 yrs is the only one that counts so Sony is still 3m units behind the 360 and 360 is the winner in the present not the time fram in a sells comparison for 5 yr total for the rival platforms.

in one thread last yr somebody was saying ps3 had already outsold 360 because of replacement model's. now that would be great ammo for another sonyfan to go on but not me. i quoted that poster and told him 360 would likely still be ahead because of replaced PS3's. i can't post about a likely situation considering those who didn't send there 360's in to get fix'd (RROD cost MS $2b i think)are stupid lol so that doesn't change the fact that (even though afew consoles are replacement units) those consoles are still sold the reason they sold means nothing cauuse they still count as sells.

i hope i'm not confusing you. let me know if i am an tell me wht part and i'll go back and explain it 

As for your dead or alive prediction, I predicted FFXIII going multiplatform before it went official, and I still believe FFVXIII will go multiplatform. I'm right about games sometimes. I also said GT5 and Last Guardian will be delayed substantially (before last years march release and this years august relase respectivly) and they have. GT5 and last Guardian were obvious. a blind man could have seen that.

If you align Wii and PS2 sales, they follow idential patterns (early peaks, slow declines, and 1 last peak with a price cut). However Wii has topped PS2 by 2-4 million every year. This is the first year I think they will level out, or PS2 will inch ahead. PS3 and PSP have also had identical sales patterns. Late peaks, with a sudden jump in sales after 3 years, and then a gradual drop. well wii will continue to fall hard and get off pase. its last stronge hold will be the u.s. but that will fall aswell and 360 will pass wii in us sells. Wii is a dead horse living and Nintendo needs to finish killing it like Sony did PS2. 

yea i said it. Sony killed PS2 early because they didn't want MS to get an early lead and they didn't want to be 2 yrs late to the party. so just like 360 PS3 wasn't ready either, but Wii was.

Also, it's kind of funny. You think 360 sales will drop in EMEAA, I think PS3 sales will drop in Americas and Japan. I think in 2013 PS3 sales will drop drastically in Japan to 5k weekly, and in Americas, after 360's next price cut, I doubt PS3 sales will ever be more then half of 360's. I think 360 will have legs in Americas, but PS3 will have legs in EMEAA. hey thats likely. love the way you think, but theres nothing holding 360 in 2013 other then the 2012 release of halo. granted Sony has nothing that big, but i also think halo has gotten all it can out of 360, so i see 2012 as a floater yr. consoles will sell wht ever regardless of wht comes out. no software will impact tha sells of either console. this gen ends this yr but Sony nore MS are ready for it to end.

your starting to make me think Ninty will take next gen to. 

This is why I don't think the PS3 will overtake 360 anytime soon. 360 will always be strong in Americas, and PS3 will always be strong in EMEAA, and in Japan for a bit. When PS3 dies in Japan and Americas, 360 will die in EMEAA. So both consoles annual sales will drop respectivly with each other. eitherway PS3 will continue to push into more markets and out sell 360 before 2016 and if sony is stronger next gen that will pay off. sonys biggest problem this gen was not having a global launch. or launch dates closer together. they'd be even closer if not ahead of 360 right now if they had. 

once again. PS3's lifttime on the market is better then the 360 at the same time period so its safer to say 360 follows PSP's pattern.

Also next year, I think 360 will come down in price, and Halo 4 will attract new gamers. PS3 might outsell 360 this year, but I doubt it can do it for next (just compare the software, there is almost nothing big for PS3 so far). theres enough softwar for PS3 considering vita cross platform support which will mainly plat a part in japan. PS3 will do wht it has done for so many yrs now and thats outsell the comp early on and hold an edge until the end of the yr or even sell on par with 360 during the holiday season.

i can do a trend on this because its current and in relation to rock star. Agent will do just as good as LA. Nore, and red dead redemption with the only difference being Agent will push PS3 harware sells. Sony has been sneaky all gen and i expect nothing less from them next yr.

both MS and Sony have been playing under the radar all gen(mainly because of the cost to manufacture)

the big ip's in the dark for sony have yet to see the light of day and the biggest one is Agent from Rock star. this one i can follow a sells trend on just from rockstars software sells this gen.

don't count out move or kinect either. move is only 2m units behind kinect in ww sells which means nothing when you think about it but the sftware should hit hard for both devices in 2012 which could move sells for the 2 consoles in question

the only question that remains is wht kind of dissruption will wiiu have when it's released?  if wiiu has any affect on 360 or ps3 then we never had this conversation cause i'll forget it ever happen'd

Sorry for taking so long to get to this, been real busy last couple days and I didn't want to rush my reply.

"Many more people are waiting for the PS3 to cost less." Explain how you know this and where you got this information. Maybe there are more people thinking about getting a PS3 on forums, but that's not at all a good representation of the average.

Also I think Ms has leverage. Lots of casual gamers are interested in Kinect, and unlike sony, they are at least making some new exclusive IP's for Kinect. The games MS publishes now are very different then the ones it published just 2-3 years ago.

PS2 is selling best in EMEAA. In regions which recently got the PS2 or in regions where PS3/360/Wii are still unavailable. It's selling in North America, but I'm not sure how well. I went into the Sony store and the sales rep didn't even know how much the PS2's they had on shelves cost to sell. It's still impressive though.

Your not confusing me, but you are bouncing around with ideas, with no general concluding statement. PS3 may very well be ahead of 360 with replaced systems. I doubt it because 3 million is a big gap, and MS did extend the warrenty to 3 years, where Sony did not. However all they did was replace your 360 with leftover stock of original model 360's who are also susseptable to the same failrate. Hence why I had two new consoles go on me. Luckily I learned how to b***h and got an HDMI model in the end, but most people didn't, so I suspect that many 360 owners from 2005-2007 may have had to replace their 360, or they switched to Sony.

I agree with you when you say Sony killed PS2. They needed more time for Blu-Ray technology to become cheaper before implementing it in the PS3, that's why it cost so damn much at the start, and PS2 had some really sick games release the year it was replaced. PS3 started out with almost nothing, and I would argue took 2-3 years before exclusive software started to pick up. Nintendo in killing the Wii as well (Wii really needed Pikmin 3, look how lame the upcoming games are), I agree with you full out here.

For 2013, you say there is nothing holding the 360, well I agree. However there is nothing holding the PS3 either, so why would the PS3 severly outsell the 360? Both systems will be replaced around that time, so I would imagine very little incetive other then cheap prices would entice new console buyers.

As for sales pattern, please align the PS3 and PSP annual sales on excel. You will see what I'mtalking about. 360 had a much slower growth then PS3 and PSP. 360 peaked in 5 years, not 3, and is showing more strength in it's later years where PS3 and PSP showed most of their strength in years 3-5. 360 has a very unusual sales pattern because most console peak early and dramatically and fall drastically, where 360 has grown and falled very very slowly.

Also PS1 and PS2 didn't have a worldwide release date. Why is PS3 the only system affected by that?

I don't think Agent will remain exclusive. Rockstar is not the type of company to make exclusives, most PS2 exclusives were later ported to X-Box. We also know very very little about this game. Dead Island was originally a 360 exclusive, and remained that way until only last year. I think Agent will follow a similar pattern.

As for Move, the number of unique Move owners compared to 360 owners is about 1:4 last I heard. Kinect software is far outpacing Move as well.

You assume Sony has big games planned for PS3 next year, but I disagree. Sony has always announced their big games years in advance. MS is known to announce games close to launch. Forza 3 was announced only 4 months before it released, and Gear of War 2 was only 9 months. I wouldn't be surprised if MS announced something big like Alan Wake 2 to realease during 2012.

So even if MS doesn't catch up and tie annual sales with PS3 this year, MS will at least tie PS3 in sales next year if not beat it. 360 is selling so close to PS3, MS can easily do a price cut on Kinect or 360 to gain the lead, or make some ridiculous bundles. I think MS has what it needs to stay #2, and MS is smart enough to do whatever it needs to keep 360 in second. MS is toying with Sony by having the 360 cost $50 more.