MARCUSDJACKSON said:
Michael-5 said:
You expect PS3 to outsell Wii? 360 too I assume. WOW, I can't say I share your belief. its really not that big of a stretch. i know there alot of factors involved, but its highly likely. i'm not to sure on 360 considering i don't think MS will want to keep it around after the launch of circle 66, but 80 to 105m is wht i see for 360. all i truly know is that this is the bench mark gen cause there has never been a gen where the 2nd and 3rd place consoles sold more then 50m units and were both this close to first place so i wouldn't count it out. all i can say is continue to watch my sig as we lead up to 2016 and we'll find out how this ends cause i'm never truley sure even when i'm right.
i got one for ya just to show you how off the wall predictions come true. the newly announced Dead or Alive5 going multiplatform was a prediction i made last yr. there was no signs of this happenning, and not one announcement or mention or rumur about it, happening. there ya go. a long time 360 exclusive (eventhough it was on dream cast and ps2)and with me having no reason to think otherwise went multiplatform and i made the prediction last yr.
Most early predictions went bad. People thought PS3 would just crash before 10M, and that didn't happn. People thought PS3 would overtake the 360 in 2006, 2007, especially 2008, 2009, especially 2010, and again in this year, but that didn't happen. People also thought Wii could outsell PS2 (I think it will come close), and this is looking unlikely too. well don't forget wht Sony will do with PS3. if it doesn't happen in 2016 it will happen eventualy. i changed my prediction of PS3 beating 360 this yr only because in the end i didn't see it happening. i was the first to post predictions for fiscal 2011 and many thought i was crazy. even playstation owners question'd the prediction! ninty105m, ps3 60m 360 58m. i didn't have a reason to change my predictions until around march and PS3 was still outselling 360 so why change the prediction when the console is selling?
well i didn't see it happening so i changed.
Out of curiousity, what is your 360 lifetime prediction? Do you have one for DS and PSP? i've never done handheld prediction cause there sells are either to high or low for me to touch. next yr DS will likely do 10m, and be on the market for another 3 yrs so in that time i'd say another 15-25m for the ds in 3 yrs if ninty continue to support it for that length of time. psp is alittle harder considering its sells trends. japan will be its leader and in 3 yrs likely 30m based on continued support from sony and japan mostly unless support falls off whci i do beleive is in the cards thenits likely to sell about 12-18m over the next 3 yrs.
360 will reach 70m nextyr and i think 360 sell may or may not peak in north america, but in emea's sells will fall off but not by much. so in 3yrs if 360 is still on the market i'll say 27m. 'ill add them up in asect
Mine are:
95M for PS3 and 360. PS3 sales follow a trend pattern almost identical to PSP's (allign their launches and take a look, just remember PSP released in March and PS3 in November), and I think they will have the same lifetime sales. I think 360 will hold leading sales until 2013, and then both consoles will come out about on par. However I stink PS3 will do a bit better then PSP because it's main market is EMEAA and not Japan. wow looks liek we truly have a diferent perspective. i like your thinking and it works, but i can't compare PS3 and PSP sells cause they've sold nothing alike, but i like how you've done it.
85M for the PSP. It's at 70M now, and the PSV is coming this fall in Japan. This will kill PSP sales. It did 10 million last year, I expect 7-8 million this year, and 4 next year. yea 7-8 is also wht i see for PSP sells.
170M for the DS. It did 20 million last year, but I only expect it to just break 10 million this year. GBA did 17 million more after the DS released. I think the DS has anohter 22 Million left in it. very logical
135M for Wii. It's held better then PS2 sales annually all it's life. This is the first year it might not top PS2's numbers with an alligned launch. next year it only needs 13 M to keep up with PS2, and I don't think that will happen. I think Wii will hold 80% of PS2 sales the next couple years, and it will drop pretty sharply with the launch of Wii U. Wii just doesn't have as much software as PS2. wii is a monster but life time 135 i don't see. its almost likely to do that in 3yr's but i won't hold my breath lol.
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ds in 3 yr's 183m
360 in 3yrs 90m or so.
psp in 3 yrs 86m
PS3 is the hardest one: 101m in 3 yrs main holdings emeaa and japan
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So you think PS3 will outsell the 360 by an average of 35% over the next three years? I really doubt that. Sony said they won't loose profit to win second place, and I honestly feel MS is toying with PS3. I mean they are selling the 360 for $50 more then the PS3 now, and it's a cheaper system to make.
You agree with me, it's hard to predict future sales this year. I'm just skeptical of PS3 toping 360 anytime soon. If PS3 tops 360, it will be after both systems are replaced, and at that point, does it matter? X-Box passed GCN late into last gen, but no one really cares anymore.
As for your dead or alive prediction, I predicted FFXIII going multiplatform before it went official, and I still believe FFVXIII will go multiplatform. I'm right about games sometimes. I also said GT5 and Last Guardian will be delayed substantially (before last years march release and this years august relase respectivly) and they have.
If you align Wii and PS2 sales, they follow idential patterns (early peaks, slow declines, and 1 last peak with a price cut). However Wii has topped PS2 by 2-4 million every year. This is the first year I think they will level out, or PS2 will inch ahead. PS3 and PSP have also had identical sales patterns. Late peaks, with a sudden jump in sales after 3 years, and then a gradual drop.
Also, it's kind of funny. You think 360 sales will drop in EMEAA, I think PS3 sales will drop in Americas and Japan. I think in 2013 PS3 sales will drop drastically in Japan to 5k weekly, and in Americas, after 360's next price cut, I doubt PS3 sales will ever be more then half of 360's. I think 360 will have legs in Americas, but PS3 will have legs in EMEAA.
This is why I don't think the PS3 will overtake 360 anytime soon. 360 will always be strong in Americas, and PS3 will always be strong in EMEAA, and in Japan for a bit. When PS3 dies in Japan and Americas, 360 will die in EMEAA. So both consoles annual sales will drop respectivly with each other.
Also next year, I think 360 will come down in price, and Halo 4 will attract new gamers. PS3 might outsell 360 this year, but I doubt it can do it for next (just compare the software, there is almost nothing big for PS3 so far).
