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For the period in question last year (from this time of year, up to Black Friday), the Wii sold 2.8 million. Or an average of just over 200,000 a week. The Wii is down 34% YoY, though. That would lead to 1.85 million being sold, which wouldn't be enough.

I think 1.85 million is a bit optimistic, though. The Wii is averaging just a bit over 100,000 a week now, and I think it's likely to stay around there. 115,000 a week would lead to 1.50 million, which I think is more likely.