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Walmart.

Somebody speculated, I believe possibly correctly, that Ioi misinterpreted the market for CoD4 and as such his estimations for it were based on hardcore rather than casual gamers. Obviously it has appealed to the casual market (casual as in last gens PS2 market, not casual as in WiiFit) and as such his estimations for the major retailers were a mile off.
Of course NPD does not have access to Walmart numbers either and they must have been very bullish on the sales in those areas to get such a larger difference. Personally I believe the number is probably well over a million but quite short of the NPD number.