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5 years from now, launching a dedicated gaming handheld will either be a niche product or commercial suicide. Its pretty obvious that tablets and smartphones will take over as portable gaming and multimedia platforms of choice few short years time. So no, even MS isn't that stupid as it will take them more than 5 years to get viable marketshare with a dedicated gaming handheld.

Not to mention that MS doesn't make hardware. If they can convince HTC to make a portable xbox as a phone with access to xbox live arcade or something, that makes more business sense for everyone involved.