Worldwide UP - August 27, 2011

[postofficebuddy]

Carl2291 said:

postofficebuddy said:

Seece said:

postofficebuddy said:
The reason I think early 2013 is because I expect Wii to reach 100 million either in late 2012 or early 2013. 100 million at 40% is 250 million total. Sony expects to be at 65 million by April next year and I expect both 360 and PS3 to reach 75 million within a month or two of each other probably around early 2013. Unless Sony cuts price again next year, then maybe holidays 2012 for PS3.

You're expecting a non existant holiday for Wii then.

Nintendo expect to ship 98 mill by March 31st, that could drop 2 mill (but I don't think anymore) so 96 shipped by March 31st. They'll definitely ship another 4 million in the next 3 Q's ....

At this rate it'll happen in Q4, if their forecast drops. If they hit 98 mill by March like they expect, should happen late Q3, or again Q4

I assumed it would happen in Q4 anyway. Early 2013 assumes an absolute worst case scenario, basically sales dropping off a cliff thanks to WiiU and Nintendo only forecasting about 5 million next fiscal year. Obviously not very likely.

Doesnt your scenario also bend to the idea of PS3/360 only selling 10M?

Well I figured around 12-13 million for PS3's fiscal year (April 2012-March 2013). It'll be the PS3's 6th year, and the 360's 7th. They're pretty much guaranteed to be down YOY even with a price cut.