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CGI-Quality said:
2007 - PS3 outsold the 360 during the holidays (after both had price cuts)
2008 - Xbox 360 outsold PS3 by a comfortable amount after another price cut
2009 - PS3 outsold the 360 by a comfortable margin after a price cut and redesign
2010 - Xbox 360 outsold PS3 but not my as much as 2008 and PS3 still sold the most for the year

With 2011 already in PS3's favor, by a comfortable amount, the only way Microsoft could hope to outsell the PS3 during the holidays (isn't happening for the year, regardless) is by a price slash of some sort. A universal, main cut is unlikely before Nov 2011, so maybe a $50 price slash on Kinect products, which I'm pretty confident wouldn't be enough to top PS3 this holiday.

Has MS ever been wrong about their target though? They still seem to think that they will reach the top spot this year itself.