MARCUSDJACKSON said:
Michael-5 said:
You think Vita will outsell the 3DS in 2012? Why? Maybe in Japan, but not worldwide. just a thought. never know though. i think it can. right now with wht i've seen it has the right software line up, and COD on vita could kill 3DS. right now its all speculation but Vita looks to have more support then 3DS so i have to go by that right now. 2012 has to start for anyone to get a good picture on how well Vita will do.
Also 360 has yet to have it's price cut, so if anything 360's price point gives MS flexibility. If MS drops the price for a console now, the Arcade Ed may cost as little as $150-$170. If the PS3 drops furthur, MS could sell it for $130. $130 brings the 360 into budget gamer teritory, and gives all hardcore gamers no excuse not to own a 360 as a secondary or tertiary system. There is an arguement to be had on both sides with price. dito but look at it like this. 360 has already been through the ringer when it comes to price. its been everything but $130, but most of that was do to fazing out the older modles. 360 arcade isn't even the bigger selling of the modles which leads me to think that there current priced $299 modle could be in direct comp whith Sonys current priced $249 modle. Sony may be in a running game with MS next yr if MS drops price on there 160g and 320g modles which are the most important modles. Sony will need killer IP if they want to avoid a price drop next yr but i think Agent, the last guardian and FFXIII versus will help move sells along nicely.
However the current PS3 price cut is barely making any affect at all. Weekly sales are only 10% stronger then 2010, and 2009 numbers will likely crush PS3's 2011 numbers. Another price cut in 2012 will only bump PS3 sales, but they will still be heading downhill. well really the iggest focus will be on Nintendo next yr anyway with Wiiu and the 3DS out. all eyes will be on Nintendo. thats the only comp i see next yr other then Vita and 3DS. again if FFXIII versus gets released next yr Sony will do well, and likely ake my currently projected 15m by yr's end. if not then theres alot of luck and hope riding on that prediction which never stays the same if you've look at my sig over the past yr. when i fill a move i make a change, and for 2012 i fill no need to make that chaange but i'm starting to lean more on the 14m side. my predictions are all about filling and thats how i've gotten so many right. not one wrong yet. i even predicted 8 months in advance when Sony would reach 50m units sold. wht can i say ts a filling.
If PS3 sells 9-11 million in 2012, sales have still dropped. Is this what you refer to as stable? I'm not expecting PS360 sales to crash in 2012, just fall. For 2011 both Sony and Ms expect 15 million fiscal years, so they might not even drop at all. when i say stable i mean sell 15m in 2011 and 2012. i don't see MS hitting 15m this yr. 12 to 14 is more likely.
9-11 million for 2012 is the same numbers I would predict for both PS3 and 360. i may be to ambitious?
|
|
PSV could outsell 3DS, I would be ignorant to thing otherwise. After all Wii outsold PS3 after PS2 nearly killed the Gamecube. PSV could do the same. However I see more support for 3DS on a software front.
For price, I 100% agree. Arcade models account for less then 20% of 360 sales, so the more critical console to compete with Sony is the 250GB model (likely to be upgraded to 320GB). However there is no 160GB 360 model. Just the Arcade, 250GB, and Kinect bundles. I also think some of the Kinect bundles will affect sales during the holidays.
Just a side note, do you think Agent and FF Versus XIII will stay exclusive? FFXIII sold extremely well on the 360, and Rockstar games sell better on 360 then PS3. It would be a huge market to ignore keeping the franchise exclusive, and anything is possible after ME2 went multi-platform.
You really think PS3 will sell 14 million next year? Weekly sales were 10% lower this year before the price cut, it's going to be the same again next year. Also you said Wii died when software died, what software does PS3 have for 2012? The Last Guadian is the only major confirmed game, but that games been delayed every year for the last 2 years already. Even multiplatform games are thining out.
I think you are ambitious about PS3 sales next year. 2012 is the last year 360 gets CoD map pack exclusives (must be a reason), The last Assassin's Creeed comes out, and every franchise is seeing an end. Mass Effect, and Gears of War are finishing their trilogies, and I can't picture a 4th Uncharted or Resistance. There may be another Resident evil or GTA game, but really almost everything is dying. How long can we live off sequels?
Out of curiousity, when do you think PS4/720 will release? and when do you think PS3 sales will start droping?
