Can PS3 still win this generation and outsell Wii?

[postofficebuddy]

TheSource said:

Think about it regionally -

Can PS3 sell 15m in Japan? Wii is trending for roughly that amount

Can PS3 sell 50m in the USA? Wii is still 18 months ahead of the PS2 pace in the USA, and PS2 hit 46m in the USA. PS2 certainly never topped 4m in a year once it was above 35m like Wii is in the USA.

Can PS3 sell 40m in Europe & Australia ? It looks like Wii will get there.

Sony definitely does have some advantages in developing markets, but lets not pretend its a white-washing here - Wii has sold well in Mexico, Brazil and South Korea, and decently in mainland South East Asia. From what I can tell the main difference between Nintendo and Sony is in Eastern Europe and the Middle East where Sony has a strong presence and Nintendo has virtually no presence.

PS3 will probably have some kind of weird lifetime split compared to Wii and PS2 -

                   US             JP           EU             Global

PS2:           46            23           46                158m

Wii:            52            15           40                125m

PS3:           28            11           35                95m

It probably is conceivable that outside the USA market, PS3 will end up topping Wii figures lifetime, but even by that measure I'd expect to come ahead a little bit.

This scenario is quite optimistic. Nintendo's own projections only have them selling 12 million this fiscal year. With its successor on the market next year sales are pretty much guaranteed to decline pretty steeply. This year with its successor out DS is seeing almost a 50% YOY decline. If we see a similar trend with Wii than it would only just cross 100 million in late 2012 or possibly not even until 2013 if Nintendo don't meet their projections this year.  And no offense but I just can't see Wii lasting past 2014 at this point. GBA was pretty much dead within 2 years of the DS launch and it will probably be about the same for the DS.