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I think it all has to do with when the Wii U is going to come out, what Nintendo is going to do with the Wii once the Wii U is out, and when the Xbox 3 comes out.

When the Wii U comes out, there is going to be a lot less incentive for consumers to buy the Wii. Presumably the demand for the Wii would go down.

If Nintendo decides to continue supporting the Wii post-Wii U release that could change things, but I highly doubt Nintendo will do that as the Wii U is supposed to cover both casual and hardcore gamers.

Honestly it probably all comes down to when the Xbox 3 comes out. The sooner the Xbox 3 comes out, the less chance the 360 will pass the Wii in the Americas.