If you read what they say, none of those analysts say the PS3 will surpass the 360.
Those 4 analysts are giving a mixed bag. Jesse Divnich says his prediction models always fail, so we'll have to wait until 2012 to tell:
The Xbox 360's success is simply incredible. I won't lie, it has consistently beaten my models over the last few months--the folks at Microsoft remind me every month. The only reasoning that seems plausible is the Kinect or the strength of its software library has reached some sort of tipping point making the Xbox 360 an incredible value to consumers at its current price points.
Billy Pidgeon says that the PS3 will pass the 360 only under specific scenarios, one being the 360 successor replacing the 360 before the PS3 was replaced:
Should Microsoft release a successor to Xbox 360 and shift the pipeline for hardcore games over to the new consoles, that would be a possible scenario by which PS3 could bypass Xbox 360's active installed base.
David Cole basically says no:
In terms of our forecasts, we have the PS3 sales matching Xbox 360 in 2011 but that still leaves them behind in cumulative sales.
and Colin Sebastian also says no
if Sony combined a strong first party lineup (e.g. Uncharted/Resistance) with another hardware price reduction, I believe we would see a nice pick-up in unit sales this fall.
So I also agree with the analysts. You shouldn't highlight one specific quote, most of these people basically state that PS3 won't overtake 360 in 2011.
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