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It's happening halfway through 2009 at the earliest.

I'm honestly not sure if it's happening at all, though. The 360 is going to be very close, or even above the PS3 in sales this week, and that's before the inevitable price cut we'll definitely be seeing within the next few months.

It's obviously too early to say which one will end up on top, but right now I'd say the chance of the PS3 never passing the 360 is over 50%.