Wii gap is widening against ps3 an 360!!! 360 getting beat by PS3!

[greenmedic88]

25 million in one year is unrealistic unless you are projecting an increase in production to about 2.2 million a month some time in late February or March. Supposedly it takes months (up to 5) to ramp up production in numbers like that. But that was the time frame given by Nintendo last year, any guess as to how long that would take now is as good as any other.

As for the whole HDTV market penetration point, he may have a valid argument there. Being an earlier adopter of new standards than most of my extended family, I was the only one to buy a 1080p display last year, which was complemented by a PS3. Later I picked up a Wii and then a 360. Wii for the novelty and future potential for creative and innovative changes in gameplay. 360 for its catalog of exclusives.

This year, both of my extended family's households bought two HDTVs a piece. The older household has no interest in games, including the Wii, which went untouched for about 8 months after the initial sample play. They got a kick out of the custom Miis, played some Wii Sports, and that was the end of the story.

The younger household, in which the Wii sees sporadic casual usage (EA sports games, but not Wii sports anymore), is about to add a PS3 for the HD games and BR-D movies to a lesser extent, to complement the 1080p TV they just bought.

Doesn't reflect every household obviously, but this desire for HD content is normal psychology for any household that just spent thousands on HDTVs and is looking for HD content to take advantage of the enhanced visual capabilities.

For the Wii to repeat 2007 with a complete sell out of all inventory in 2008 at a rate of 1.8 million/month would mean just under 41 million units total, or an average of about 415k per week. I'll be surprised to see that number still being met as early as February. I'm curious to see if they make that number in week 2 of January still trailing off from holiday sales. If that 82k number is correct for the "others" region, we'll need to see numbers in the range of over 160k for both Japan and US to hit 415k for the week total as we continue to slide into the normal range of sales for most of 2008. It could happen, it just doesn't seem like a given that this will continue indefinitely though 2008.

Even if sales dip significantly below 415k/week on a consistent basis, I can see production remaining constant to build inventory stock for the first time since the Wii debuted. It will all depend upon how much inventory Nintendo is willing to sit on for the holidays whether they drop production rates to pre-holiday levels. I really don't see that happening under current conditions. But I don't see it rising either. At worst, I could see a price drop happening if they choose to stimulate further sales to counteract a drop in sales, or they could complement the one SKU line up with custom colors and bundles for repeat sales as Nintendo has always done in the past (better than a simple price drop). Even at $250, I don't think entry price point is keeping anyone from buying a Wii who wants one.