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padib said:

A fair post, but let me just point out some things. As an issue, Blu-Ray playback is far from being close to Online gaming in terms of importance to consumers, especially gamers. Sorry I can't prove that, but most posters here will agree. It's true that none are fundamentally necessary, but some have become necessary over time, especially Online Gaming.

My point while slightly over-exaggerated still stands however.  Where do you draw the line on 'Non-essential' features?  The Wii had a pretty mediocre online setup at best and won this generation, so obviously it's not THAT important just yet.

We know for a fact that Nintendo has changed its position on this, for that you'll have to do some of your own research, but to start google "jimae shugi". As for adding an extra screen for your controller, the purpose is twofold: 1) enhancing the gaming experience by adding a new form of interface with the system and 2) accessibility. Noone on this site will argue that 1 is debatable as a legitimate objective for both the industry and for consumers. The same can be said about 2. The more accessible your platform, the more people or situations can welcome said system, leading to more occasions of play. Another undisputable important objective.

My point is not to even debate many of these things with you. I don't have a problem with Nintendo adding new elements or screens to their controller.  I really think it could be genius.  My point is, it's certainly not necessary for accessibility in their platformAccessibility wasn't an issue with the Wii or other systems, I don't think regardless of the direction they chose, it would be with this new system.

 

What does Blu-Ray give? It gives the opportunity for a specific sub-set of customers to enjoy HD and eventually more 3D movie playback. First issue here: many people enjoy their movies in SD, and will only watch certain movies in HD.

No one would prefer to watch their movie in SD versus HD.  Point blank period.  People might not care enough to re-buy a movie in HD if they have it in SD or a whole host of other things, but generally speaking everyone would prefer to watch movies in HD.   The other aspect of this is a lot more households have HD Television sets at this point in time.   Then when the PS3 released in 2006.   Many people actually don't have Blu-Ray still and this would provide them a good reason to get their console.

Next, Blu-ray discs are more expensive than DVDs. So already, of the potential customers, only some would be interested.

DVDs were more expensive than VHS tapes at a point in time as well.  Times move on and people upgrade.  Obviously there is cost/reward scenario but with a lot more HD TVs on the market and their prices drastically coming to reasonable levels and increased Blu-ray penetration,  the cost of everything associated with it is falling and will continue to do so.


Then you have the question "who are the potential customers". You're left with 2 cases: 1) Customers who don't own a PS3. 2) Customers who don't own a regular Blu-Ray player.  Of these, we have 1) Customers who don't own a console, 2) Customers who only own a Wii and 3) Customer who own a 360 and other things, but not the PS3. Of these, you now need to strip off those who are not interested in Blu-Ray. Then, of those that are interested in Blu-Ray, you have to strip off those who are interested enough to buy a dedicated Blu-Ray player. At this point, you've already stripped off PS3 and current Blu-Ray fans. You're really not left with many potential customers, or very few. Add to that the possibility of streaming HD content via a Netflix-like service in the future, and the issue is completely gone.

There is only around 50 million PS3 owners out there out the 200 million gross total console owners from this past generation out there.  And that is just strict console owners, not counting potential new owners, people looking for blu-ray and the occassional games system.

The cost associated with adding Blu-Ray is not expensive.  As a matter of fact with their profit on every console sold model, Nintendo most likely would still be making out even if the overall increase in sales was minor.


So now not only is the potential market weak, but there are other reasons. As you stated, to delay piracy, Nintendo is creating its own media format. Allowing Blu-Ray playback is a step closer to piracy. I don't think this is a great reason, because piracy has been a great factor for pushing system sales.

Nintendo tried the same thing with DVD on the Wii and it really just flopped.  The Wii was broken and pirated with somewhat ease .  It's just an unncessary step that doesn't cost much and adds a whole other dimension to their product.

However, from a philosophical point of view I believe Nintendo prefers selling software than hardware, so that's not a good counter-argument. Lastly, you have royalty fees to allow Blu-Ray playback. From Iwata's own words, find the quote here: http://www.engadget.com/2011/06/15/wii-u-will-not-play-dvds-or-blu-ray-iwata-says/

I think it's just a lame duck excuse to be quite honest.  They will be using some form of Blu-ray derivitave next generation regardless,  primary online streaming still is several years away (Probably 1 more generation).  It would cost more, but it wouldn't cost that much more.    I mean DVD playback?   The PS2 had DVD playback for gods sakes.  The Wii U should incorporate DVD/Blu-Ray and give it a solid host of multi-media features and competitive features for third parties and it would probably be a generation winning successor. 

It also cuts off the steam that the PS3 has been making in the current generation and will pull people looking for Blu-Ray as a feature in their direction.