Pachter is right.
I talked to a few other high-level analysts at major publishers that were very bearish on the WiiU as well. Pachter is right on the timing as well. WiiU will only have about 1 year to sell on market before other devices are released. That means that it won't have a large amount of time to garner significant market share to allow for a lot of say with the next-gen consoles in terms of game design vs. PS4/X720 or whatever said iterations are named. Comparatively, had it released this year or a year prior, it would of had 2-3 years of breathing room, and able to significantly differentiate itself from next-gen.
I would imagine that due to the release schedule, Sony and Microsoft can maneuver knowing the WiiU specs, resulting with more powerful consoles at a better price-performance ratio, therefore a better value proposition for consumers.
If the Tablet isn't used properly (which I question the viability of), then it will have a significant time differentiating itself from the other products as a good buy in the next wave of consoles - thus hurting it significantly once its a 3-horse race. Furthermore, I am wondering what the cost constraints on the tablets are - I am worried that their cost to build may make the WiiU very expensive compared to the other next-gen systems (remember, the Wii was $50 less than the cheapest Xbox 360 and $250 less than the cheapest PS3 on launch day and came with a great free game).
Add to it many questions about online integration, and Nintendo's poor track record with it, and it will be questionable how well WiiU will perform concerning DLC which will be absolutely critical to next-gen title successes. Development costs will expand significantly next generation, and titles will need to be able to generate more income via more and more DLC once the title has been acertained as a success, and will meet certain goals with the sales of DLC.
Unless something amazing happens that I just can't see it reaching the success of the Wii. I think the WiiU will likely sell between 35 million and 50 million consoles.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
