I doubt it will have as much of an impact as Halo 3. It won't get nearly the marketing push and, anecdotally, I don't know anyone buying a console for GTA. Everyone I know eagerly anticipating the game has a console, and everyone else that I know who is interested in the game can wait. With Halo 3, on the other hand was different, I knew a couple of people who ended up buying a 360 for Halo 3. And even with the Halo 3 launch, the 360 didn't do much better in 2007 than in 2006.
There are a lot of GTA clones that do GTA better these days. For example, Godfather was better than the GTAs available so far, in my opinion.
Either way, there is no "market turning point" coming up. A market turning point, when the market has as much momentum as it does, is typically very easy to see coming. You'll see big signs of it. This is a big market, and it changes (relatively) slowly.
GTA 4 will get a lot of its sales from long legs. As people pick up the consoles, a large percentage of them will also be interested in GTA 4.
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