I just realized that Nintendo will stay in first place for a long time

[SaviorX]

Seece said:

RolStoppable said:

About a year has passed since I posted this thread and the situation has changed dramatically since then. Nintendo is increasingly more adopting the mindset that led to their Nintendo 64 and Gamecube lows, so it's highly probable that they will lose big time in the eighth generation of video game consoles. But first, let me reflect on what we saw of the 3DS at this week's E3.

It's almost as Nintendo wants Sony to dethrone them. The PS Vita's price point, while good, isn't the most troublesome issue here. It's Nintendo's lineup for the foreseeable future (up until E3 2012). It just screams Gamecube with Luigi's Mansion 2 being the only noteworthy addition to the titles we already knew were coming. As everyone should know, the Gamecube wasn't Nintendo's most successful system, so one has to wonder what's going on in the heads of the Nintendo executives to basically emulate its software lineup. What's worse is the remote possibility that Super Mario 3DS isn't only the 3DS's 3D Mario title, but at the same time the 2D Mario that has been talked about before. Reggie even called Super Mario 3DS a new Super Mario Bros. game in a Gametrailers interview. In any case, the lack of a 2D Mario announcement for the 3DS this week is worrying (or any 2D gameplay titles in general).

Of course this won't magically make Sony win in the handheld market, but it gives them an actual chance of doing so, because Nintendo leaves the door wide open. Now it's time for my thoughts Nintendo's new home console, the Wii U.

Its mission seems to be to get the hardcore gamer back on board. This is flawed on so many levels. First, the hardcore gamer never was part of Nintendo's audience in the past. That's because this sort of gamer deliberately avoids playing Nintendo systems. Even if Nintendo would fulfill all their wishes, it would only end up on those very same people moving the goal posts. I've talked about this counterculture in the original post of this thread and I don't think it needs any further explanation.

Second, the hardcore gamer doesn't play a vital role in Nintendo's success or lack thereof. Never has, never will. Actively pursuing him is a waste of time and money. And third, it's offputting for the people who actually do like Nintendo. As if this wasn't enough, there are already other problems emerging with the Wii U's design philosophy. Like ceding the TV to other forms of entertainment, going back to a classic controller setup for the main controller and the lack of a clear vision all around. The Wii U is nothing like the Wii was five years ago. Yes, eventually there will be actual games shown for the Wii U, but if the 3DS is any indication (and it should be), then Nintendo doesn't have much interest to continue the mission they started at the beginning of the seventh generation.

Bottom line is that the Nintendo of today is pretty similar to what they were ten years ago which means they are on the way down, not up. Also, Nintendo doesn't have the luxury of third parties bailing them out when things go bad. In fact, it's the exact opposite.

I think this 'We will win back the core' message has been mistranslated, it's apparant now it's ludicrus for Nintendo to even suggest anything like that will happen. They're constantly comparing to PS360 as their benchmark. I think they're trolling us personally!!

That said, I don't think Nintendo are making a mistake with the WiiU. I believe the Wii was lighting in a bottle, and they don't have infinite innovation in their blood like so many people harp on about. WiiU is going to cater to Nintendocore/causals equally this time around, and sell far less than Wii. But that isn't a bad thing, as long as they make money, which they always do.

I expect 3DS to beat Vita, but not by much at all, and I expect WiiU to be 3rd at worst, and not by a massive margin.

Hmm.

In my honest opinion, the fact that Nintendo 'lost' with the N64 and Gamecube did not matter to me as long as the games were there, which they were. Personally, one of the reasons I enjoyed N64/GC were because of the superb wrestling games and a few fighting titles which were unfortunately absent on the Wii.

Basically, I'd rather Nintendo sell 60 million consoles next gen with full software support and great games, then 115 million consoles but nothing outside of 1st party to show for it. While watching their E3 conference live, I was happy to see Arkham City for WiiU, even if it is releasing months later than on current consoles. The idea of finally playing games like Army of Two #3 and Tekken on a Nintendo system is very  exciting, and I think people lose sight of that. If I could give an example...

it is like having your favorite artists make a song with someone else that you would never expect or always wished they would. When things like that happen it is an Event, not a mere 'featuring __", and the same thing applies here.

In terms of the 3DS, I still reserve judgment  until after this coming holiday. At this very early moment, it is only receiving games we all know to be good; OOT, Starfox, Mario Kart etc. I would not worry of Nintendo abandoning Touch Generation style games in favor of releasing sequels to these remakes and ports. In the slowest sales period of the year, the 3DS sales will appear underwhelming. However, with an influx of 1st party software coming soon and the beginning of true advertising, things are gradually going to ramp up. The Playstation Vita has revealed itself to be a formidable handheld...but it still is not here yet. No matter if the 3DS sells 10 units tomorrow or 53400, it is still expanding by  its lonesome until Vita drops. At E3, they said it would release by the end of this year, but I'm not sure if they meant Worldwide, although the pricing being listed for each region would lead you to believing that.

Nintendo can survive without the 'hardlycore', but it does not hurt to attempt to grab them either.What we saw at E3 was mere prototype for an array of WiiU related things. The confusion around the whole console is blown out of proportion when you consider that it still won't be released by next year's E3, nor was the console BOX truly shown off.

Did Nintendo blow their load early? Yes they did. Will that leave them open to blatant imitation by Sony and Microsoft? Yes. Will they end up in last place with the WiiU? Well...no.

Besides the fact the console has at least a 5 month headstart on a PS4/Xbox 720, it will still be the box that plays Mario. New Super Mario Bros Mii was proof they haven't lost sight of Everything completely (:P), and Super Smash Brothers Rumble will be there eventually (2015 to venture a guess). Along with a traditional Mario Kart and titles that match the appeal of Wii Sports, the WiiU will not surpass the Wii, but the thing is not going to go down in flames either. NSMBM, MKWiiU, SSBR, and a Zelda are fully capable of pushing out 50 millions piece of software comnbined.

The last point I'll make, is that it still continues the Wii brand name. How much that will really help is indistinguishable, but will help the less informed consumers initially.