Now That We Know About The Wii U, What Will Be Its Fate?

[Joelcool7]

I think you got some things spot on, however I think its still way to early to judge the WiiU's hardware.

Graphics - IBM has commented on the power of the WiiU a tad or so I saw in another thread. From IBM's comment it would appear that WiiU will be significantly more powerful then the PS3. Also from what I heard from my uncle working at IBM is that IBM is not done the proccesors and stuff yet. The final tech isn't out.

Example when Nintendo unvieled GameCube they released dev kits that were not as powerful as GameCube was when it was released. Then when Nintendo Wii was announced infact at E3 2006 developers were still using modified GameCube dev kits. Now Nintendo's conference showed footage from the PS3 versions of the third party titles and didn't show a single Nintendo title. If this isn't raising your eyebrows I don't know what would.

So graphics are undetermined. Nintendo still has another year of development and the final dev kits are not in third party hands. Infact Nintendo themselves probably don't have final dev kits. Nintendo has already said they won't talk specs so they are essentially leaving us in the dark about how powerful this system will be when it releases.

 

Games - Your right alot of the third party games that will be released will be ports from the PS3. But we already see Team Ninja releasing an exclusive Ninja Gaiden. Comments from developers make it sound as if EA will be playing a much bigger role in the WiiU's launch then they did with Wii. UbiSoft who has been one of Nintendo's biggest third party supporters since GameCube was given less time in Nintendo's conference but they are bound to be supporting the WiiU with more then Ghost Recon.

Also you are judging the games over a year and a half before the console is likely to launch. Nintendo usually launches home hardware in November area. So November 2012 is over a year away. The fact that Nintendo only announced two games (SmashBros/Pikmin3) is a big indicator that the titles are being held back.

Nintendo probably could have announced 6-7first party games even more third party titles and shown them right now. However because the technology isn't finished and because their is over a year to launch Nintendo why bother announcing all those titles. Also you said that Nintendo's first party titles alone didn't sell the Wii. I beg to differ every major selling title pretty much was Nintendo. WiiFit, MarioKart, NSMBW. What third party games really drove hardware sales? JustDance and Carnival Games can you think of many others that truly shifted hardware?

Casuals - This is where I have to agree whole heartedly. I don't think casuals will be in any rush to upgrade to WiiU. At the same time those that do want to upgrade might end up going Kinect or Move which will both be cheaper and have alot of casual support. I think Nintendo really failed to target the casual market with this new console. If Nintendo had wanted to truly target the market they would have released a newer Wiimote with a camera much like Sony's Move. I don't think casuals will see the new controller as enticing.

Conclusion - I think Nintendo will halve their marketshare. Wii sells over 80+ million units I think that WiiU will sell 40+ million much like Sony and Microsoft got around this generation. This is being optamistic that Nintendo will get the whole hardcore market which I think is possible if the graphics are truly next gen and the games are their. But I think casuals will largly jump ship for Microsoft or Sony.

It will be a return of the old Nintendo, before Nintendo went all casual. That means less sales but more hardcore games. A plus for the average gamer but bad for Nintendo share holders and casuals!