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I can only predict two things about the Wii U market

1) It will probably lose some of the Wii users since its main controller is not as immersive as the Remote Wii is. For example: I don't want to play any Zelda games with the old controllers anymore, so if Nintendo forces me to use the Wii Pad and not the motion plus I will not buy the game or even the console.

2) It will probably prevent Nintendo fans of buying a new console to play third party games since the Wii U is going to have a better third party support.

So it can not only shrink the Wii market but the PS360 market as well. This why I'm hoping that Nintendo will do some changes in the Wii U's business model in order to at least keep the Wii market.