If you count pack-ins, Mario sales are over 300 million.* Since you're obviously counting the Wii Sports pack-in in this thread, that's what you have to measure against for #1.
* http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=mario&console=&publisher=&sort=Total
300 million is out of the question until we know if games like Wii Music will be as big as Wii Fit, and how many such games there will be. And it would still be practically impossible within one generation.
100 million, on the other hand, looks like a good bet. Wii Sports will get at least half-way there itself, and Wii Play another 20 million at minimum. Wii Fit should contribute 8 digits as well.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
