Nintendo has a habit of delayed "lauch titles" for a console. I know Nintendo promised release date for before christmas for a lot of title, but I bet you one or more of those titles will be delayed into 2012 spring. My bet is Paper Mario.
As for Wii, I really hope Pikmin 3 comes in. I don't think The Last Story will make it to the west this year, but XenoBlade should. It's unfortunate, but I bet neither JRPG will sell well despite being good.
I have a feeling Pikmin 3 will be a Cafe title, and I agree with you on a 20 game lineup. However most won't be playable at E3, at best we will get a gameplay footage. I agree with FPS's, maybe a Metroid right off the bat.
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