If the NGP starts at $250, and 3DS sales don't take off leading up to and immediately after Black Friday, there would be good reason for Nintendo to drop the price to $199 to spur sales.
At $199, that would still be a 100% profit off the BOM. Given the low production cost of the 3DS, Nintendo has a huge amount of adjustment room as far as MSRP goes.
Ideally, it would be the release of key Nintendo IPs and third party releases that have the same effect without having to adjust the price, but it would also seem unlikely that Nintendo didn't have a price drop as a part of a contingency plan if supply/production easily matches and even outstrips demand over the holiday season.
Either that or they'll try some sort of holiday bundle package to increase the perceived value.
