| greenmedic88 said: The official word from Nintendo is that they will maintain production at 1.8 million units until demand subsides. That's from the mouth of Nintendo's Senior VP George Harrison. |
Harrion's statement is a bit out of context there. He more recently said they'd reevaluate demand in early 2008 and decide what to do.
As I've stated, it takes Nintendo five months to get more production out of its partners after it determines it needs more. So when Nintendo increases demand, it is trying to predict the demand 5 months out, not the demand today. I'll tell you one thing: Nintendo will not be caught next Christmas with its pants down again without increasing supply significantly. And they've got some big games coming out early in 2008 -- three in the first half: Mario Kart, Wii Fit and Super Smash Brothers: Brawl. These games, especially Wii Fit, are the kind that can seriously drive sales of Nintendo's little white box.
Everywhere.
You're talking about 'empirical evidence' but, if you had even a modicum of an idea what you were talking about, you'd realize that you can't determine the extent of demand if there isn't enough supply to meet it consistently for any significant period of time. And here in North America, for example, Wiis aren't staying on shelves for even hours after they land. Even when they arrive unannounced.
Analysts, the kinds of 'professionals' you're talking about, said that Nintendo may have left a billion dollars worth of Wii demand on the table this holiday season. And you're simply assuming that demand will slack sometime soon?
Let's see who's eating crow in a few months as Nintendo's marketshare progresses toward 50%.
