All 5 are at least fairly likely to happen IMO.
1. I highly doubt Nintendo will leave the Wii with just SS on the 1st party this Christmas, I'm thinking a lower profile IP as well (am I too optimistic when I say Pikmin 3?). That new Kirby platformer will probably be early 2012 and as well as a couple of new games announced at E3 (F-Zero and Wave Race perhaps?)
2. Given what NoE are doing with the DS as of late, I expect this will happen in the run up and after the release of Cafe. For the DS, after the launch of it's successor we've seen Nintendo localising 3rd party games such as DQVI and Solatorobo (both due for European release soon). I expect Nintendo to do the say to a slightly lesser degree with the Wii, maybe with the likes of The Last Story, Earth Seeker, etc.
3. Nintendo are going to advertise the hell out of this in the run up to Christmas. Whether Nintendo will up their level of standard normal advertising during ordinary weeks is the main question.
4. This is the least likely to occur IMO. We almost certainly won't see something with the sales potential of NSMBWii or DKCR, unless Nintendo announce Wii Music 2 or similar. SS will sell probably about TP numbers, if not more. DQX will also be a 4m plus seller.
5. This is the wild card. I've been surprised by every Nintendo conference at E3 as long as I can remember and with the exception of the frankely embarrasing 'performance' at E3 2008, they've all been very good surprises. For the Wii, we can expect some little surprises, but they will be constantly overshadowed by the Cafe megatonne.