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as everything right now is still rumors i think it is pre-mature to do any in-depth analysis...

however, if the next nintendo hardware truely is only on par with the ps360 from a horsepower perspective then yes, ms and sony won't have to make a new console any time too soon.  as you said in your first reply, the ps360 just came off their strongest years.  

either way -- i don't see sony or ms going more than another 2-4 years before releasing their next whatevers meaning the wii HD life could be cut even shorter than the wii.