| TheSource said: Let's assume the cut to $150 is real, and mimicked outside the USA in various currencies. What do you expect the Wii baseline to be? In the USA Wii has been $150 before, for brief periods as a loss leader to get store traffic over Christmas. $200 --> $150 is a 25% price cut across the board though. I'm going to assume Wii stabilizes at 115k / week at $200 until May 15 (60k / 45k / 10k roughly between Americas, EMEAA, Japan). In the week after the price cut I'm going to say: - 150k Americas - 20k Japan - 100k EMEAA For the next two weeks (til end of May), hw will decline 10-15% from the initial large lift. By June, I think figures stabilize at these levels for a couple months (June 1 - Aug 1 at least): - 110k Americas (60k ish base line currently) - 14k Japan (9k base line currently) - 70k EMEAA (45k baseline currently) Presumably after July, the price cut will begin to wear off, particularly if PS3 / X360 get price cuts but more software will arrive after E3 you have to figure. Over Nov-Dec we'll likely see another large spike particularly if Walmart / BB etc give away $50 - $75 gift cards with Wii (even if you just want Wii for 2-3 games, it becomes a steal at $175 for a NEW console and three-four games). |
What do you base your predictions on exactly? Do you work with an estimated price elasticity of the videogame market? If one knew that figure, coupled with a 25% price drop and the current siatuation of the market, one should be able to estimate the sales rather well. The overall sales pattern (strong lift in sales, wearing off slowly) sounds good to me. It's in line with previous price drops for current gen consoles.
$50 gift cards for a $150 console would be huge at christmas. It's basically a 33% price drop to the customer. Even a $250 PS3 coupled with a $75 gift card wouldn't compare. And the Wii comes bundled with 2 games. It's like the Super NES deals where you could get Mario Allstars Mario World for 99 bucks and that's without adjusting for inflation.
