I don't understand why sales will crawl, or why no-one would buy a Wii after a 360 price cut...
Anyway, I reckon:
FW- 180k, 35k, 140k Total- 355k
Next few weeks a 10% decrease
Until it stabilises at:
100k, 20k, 80k Toatal-200k
With Zelda release and assuming a bundle:
150k, 40k, 130k Total- 320k
Then the holiday period:
700k, 80k, 450k Total- 1,230k
I think this is more than what you asked but meh. The price cut will have a big effect, read news articles, blogs, even this site and see that there's a fair few who'd buy a Wii at $150, and even more at $99...