The hardware sales will be nice but software is still somewhat disastrous potentially:
Nintendo's console history for software is:
500m -> 380m --> 225m --> 210m ---> 1.2b (guess for Wii)
Sony's is something like this:
960m --> 1.58b ---> 800m (guess for PS3)
My guess for Microsoft is something like this:
225m ---> 750m (X360)
The HD market for sw may only be 1.6b, after being 1.6b on PS2 alone in SD, and 1.2b on Wii alone with HD games at double the cost or more to make. Thats effectively 1.8b from PS2 & Xbox / 250k to 1.6b to PS3 & X360 at double development costs, akin to 1.8b / 250k profitable games (7200) vs. 1.6b / 500k profitable games (3200). Third parties figured that out, so the eventual ~700m Wii third party market adds 2800 or so profitable games for about 6000, down from 7200 (down from a theoretical 7600 with GC)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
