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Hmm.. the Wii would have to sell twice as fast as the PSP to make it there first, and the PSP is moving pretty respectable numbers. Maybe if Wii production raises to around 2M per month and it keeps selling out, but Nintendo might still be too cautious for that.

Then again, the idea of the Wii making it to 40M first doesn't look that crazy compared to the thought of the Wii passing the 360 during the summer a year ago. =P