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While the 3DS should still see pretty good sales, Nintendo was just expecting too much from its handheld.  Especially at that price.  And Sony has definitely made some headway in Japan. If that transfers over to help the NGP become a success, we will have to wait and see.  I do know that the NGP is definitely looking more interesting a purchase than the PSP ever really did.  And the PSP will most likely go on to sell GBA numbers.