Erik designs the Wii 2

[Erik Aston]

RolStoppable said:

I admit that I have barely skimmed through the OP, but I think I know what the basic idea is.

Nintendo's main problem is that what makes them the most successful goes directly against what third parties want and if Nintendo does what third parties want, then their console sales suffer due to things that drive up the costs. Now in the handheld space that isn't so much of a problem, because Nintendo's only competitor is weak, but for home consoles it's a different story.

Nintendo will suffer another third party lockout, if they make another Wii (refering to the early years). I guess they could succeed, if they kept a steady direction and didn't lose focus like they did with the Wii (refering to the later years). The biggest problem though is that Nintendo doesn't make all kinds of games themselves, so they won't be able to build a wellrounded games library which eventually forces parts of their userbase to buy a competitor's console while non-owners may never be convinced to invest in Nintendo hardware (which is what is happening to the Wii right now). On the other hand, pushing more into a Gamecube 2 direction is going to end up even worse.

Regarding the 3DS, I think it will take a while until we notice a downward trend in sales compared to the DS. Not only because the DS's first year was weak, but also because I think that Nintendo is going to absorb some of Sony's PSP base. Of course those people getting on board won't make up for all the DS owners Nintendo will lose out on in the long run. It's just going to take a while, before sales numbers make Nintendo realize that the 3DS direction was the wrong one to go.

Don't overestimate the power that third parties have over Nintendo. The perfect example is Apple over the last 8-10 years. They still can't compete against Windows, and not only that, but even when they enter a new market like smartphones, they aren't the leader, but actually in 3rd place. In markets where the competition is weak, like music sales, they become the leader. But all they do is control what products THEY make, and they now are making Microsoft-level profits and are the second largest company in terms of market cap in the world. Second place is PC OS. Third place in smartphones. First place in the massively declining music retail market. And the only company bigger then them in the whole world is ExxonMobile. All because they just worry about what they can make, and what they are good at making, and don't worry about playing a balance game.

Nintendo doesn't have to give a rat's ass about shooters or GTA clones. They don't have the expertise to make those games. What's wrong is when they make Animal Crossing for Wii a straight remake of all the older versions with some online features tacked on. Or remake Nintendogs for 3DS exactly the same but with CATS OMG. Or when even 20 years later, each new Mario game is roughly equal to SMB3 in the amount of content, except now it's mostly remixed old content instead of new content. What's wrong is putting tennis courts in Wii Sports Resort, but then cutting tennis out of the game to maximize sales of Mario Tennis.

Think of all the genres that have enjoyed consistent popularity or explosive popularity in gaming history. 2D platforming. Sports. Pet Sims. Life Sims. Action/adventure. RPGs. Block-drop puzzle games. Fitness. Arcade Racers. Fighters. Mini-games. Nintendo has the ability to be king in ALL of these areas. There are actually more "unclaimed" genres, like 2D shooters, music games and even the Brain Game genre that Nintendo discarded, then there are areas where Nintendo are unable to compete, like FPS games. But Nintendo move slowly in those areas and treat Zelda and 3D Mario like they are "special," maxing out production values while they undercut the core mechanics of those series. And only the Pokemon and Mario Kart teams really "get it" in terms of how to make consistently great, popular, console-selling games.

Nintendo has ruined Animal Crossing, Zelda and Metroid. They are in the process of likely ruining Nintendogs... Wii Fit Plus was an incremental upgrade that doesn't bode well for the future of that series. Instead of making "Mii Sports 3D" they made about 1/20th of a proper game with PilotWings Resort. I mean, 1 sport with 1 level that everyone has already played? WOW. They are flipping the bird to their customers and thinking that if they have a clever gimmick like new controls or 3D images, they can get away with it. They are going to end up with 2D Mario selling 20 million but being a fraction of what it could be, and Pokemon and Mario Kart dragging a carcass of a company from one declining console to the next. And everyone will look at all the best sellers for Wii and DS and say "Wow. Guess ALL of those games were fads."