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Mario&Sonic is the only third party game announced so far that I can imagine hitting 4 million. Everyone thought Sega was being crazy when they first stated their goals, but I can see it happening now.

There will probably be a lot of big third party games announced during the next few months. A year ago we still hadn't heard anything of Zack&Wiki, No More Heroes, or the Umbrella Chronicles, so I expect quite a few surprises before 2008 is done.