Americas UP! (5th March 2011)

[postofficebuddy]

Michael-5 said:

darthdevidem01 said:

Michael-5 said:

darthdevidem01 said:

Michael-5 said:

darthdevidem01 said:

Michael-5 said:

I noticed that adjustments were done affecting the last 2 months of sales. With these adjustments PS2 is actually tracking on par with PSP for 2011 in Americas. That's nuts! PSP is a dying platform here. Also it seems 360 shortages for Early January are more extreme now, and in general 360, and PS3 sales are scaled up for the last 2 months, and Wii and DS sales are only scaled up for February, bt scaled down a bit for January.

My estimate using Japanese Media create sales is PS3 sold 205k worldwide this week, and 360 sold about 183k worldwide. I'm surprised PS3 sales didn't drop more after Killzone 3's launch week, but the gap isn't too big.

Next week DS sales will be crazy with Pokemons release.

PSP has apparently been a dying platform in NA since 2 years now...its still not dead!!!!

I really wanna know what SONY is doing to PSP, I mean what life support system its on, if only we could keep humans alive like this!

What's scary is that PS3 sales follow PS3 trends very closely. PS3 is almost 2 years older then PSP, does this mean it will continue following the trend PSP set and begin to die like PSP did 2 years ago?

It's a sign of future consoles to come.

You mean PS3 sales follow PSP trends

But do they really? How so?

Align PS3 and PSP launches, and look at annual sales. Note I merged PS3 2006 sales into 2007.

Worldwide(millions)	Year1	Year2	Year3	Year4	Year5	Year6
PS3	8.95	9.92	13.02	14.44
PSP	9.60	9.39	12.36	13.87	10.40	9.30

Americas(millions)	Year1	Year2	Year3	Year4	Year5	Year6
PS3	3.61	4.66	4.96	5.54
PSP	4.07	3.43	4.17	4.52	2.98	2.27

Okay well PS3 follows PSP trends worldwide, not so closely in Americas, but still. PSP sales droped after 4 solid years, and if PS3 follows PSP sales worldwide, that would mean PS3 sales should drop as well. Already its selling 20% less on a weekly basis, and there is no Move launch to boost holiday sales.

Worldwide PS3 sales for 2011 could be as low as 11-12 million, and in Americas it could be as low as 4-4.5 million.

PS3 is likely to start falling this year. Sales will be a bit stronger then PSP's, but in 2 years Ithink the console will be dying in Americas region, and likely worldwide too.

No MOVE launch but there will be a price cut, and I bet a slimmer model in 2012.

You will see this trend end very soon, this year in fact. PS3 YOY down will be reversed thanks to its price cut in summer or later this year.

You under-estimate the power of a mass market price, never forget PS3 is still expensive relative to other systems.

Why don't you do a PSP/PS3 EMEAA comparison. EMEAA alone might result in this "trend" not happening.

EMEAA (millions)	Year1	Year2	Year3	Year4	Year5	Year6
PS3	3.66	4.75	6.24	7.35
PSP	3.31	4.11	5.13	5.55	5.13	4.15

 

Japan (millions)	Year1	Year2	Year3	Year4	Year5	Year6
PS3	1.69	1.07	1.83	1.55
PSP	2.22	1.86	3.06	3.80	2.28	2.88

Before making the graphs, I would think Japan is the onle likely to break trends. Also with a price cut, PS3 sales might be on par with 2010, but who is to garentee a major price cut? Since launch PS3's price has dropped 50% already, Wii has only dropped 25%, and it's YoY sales are the most hurt. PS3 is also selling very well this year, a price cut might hurt revenue more then help. Only console we can almost garentee a price cut for are Wii and DS, but not the PS3/360. Although a PS3 price cut is still likely, I'm just saying it's not garenteed.

So you can see EMEAA PS3 sales follow roughly the same trend as PSP. The difference varies from 10.5% to 32.4%, but PS3 should begin to drop soon. 2011 may still be it's peak year, but 2012 sales wll be down.

The original question was will PS3 sales drop as fast in Americas as PSP did? maybe not as much for Year5 (2011) with a price cut, but it probably will come close to PSP levels in Year6 (2012).

I can pretty much say with unequivocal certainty that there will be a price cut this year. It's already getting an indirect one in Japan and there have been rumors of a cut in the west for a while now. And in regards to it trending with PSP, in EMEAA it's going to be much,much better than PSP's year 5. Possibly by as much as 3 million. So no, it's not really trending similarly to PSP in that region. And in Americas it's already trending dramatically ahead of the PSP. It'll probably pass it in actual sales here by the end of the year, despite PSP's year and 3 quarters advantage. Really, the primary reason PSP trended similarly to PS3 worldwide was because it did so much better in Japan. Ironically enough PS3 might actually come close to PSP's year 5 in that region.

I will agree that PS3 will be down next year but probably not nearly as much as PSP was in year 6 compared to year 4. Look at 360, it peaked in year 5 and will probably only be marginally down in year 6 (unless it gets a $100 cut. A $50 cut won't be nearly enough to counter the slim launch and Kinect and it's not building up enough of a YOY lead now while it has the chance)