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jarrod said:
postofficebuddy said:

Oh honestly that notion is just ridiculous. The home console market isn't dead, it's just more divided. Last gen all consoles combined sold about 30 million, 28 million if you take out Dreamcast. This gen will end not to far behind that.


Uh, what?  It's going to be multiple millions behind that?!

Actually, the home console marketing has been declining awhile now, it's just accelerated greatly this gen... I don't see fortunes reversing next gen either...

 

SFC/PCE/MD: 26,590,000

PS/SS/N64/3DO: 33,750,000

PS2/GC/DC/XB: 29,220,000

Wii/PS3/360: 19,130,000 (so far)

 

...I think this gen has maybe 5m or so left in it yet, but that's still pretty optimistic.  Wii/360 are basically done, and PS3's on a slow decline.


I've asked you about this multiple times now. What makes you so certain that NGP will cut so heavily into PS3 sales? PS2 went on to sell another 6 million after the PSP launch, which was effectively marketed as a portable PS2. And the scenario that you have Wii in basically assumes that DQX doesn't release until it's too late for it to have any effect, despite the fact that you seem to assume that it's coming this year.



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