Will the be a wii2 be the first one to market?

[jarrod]

Mr Khan said:

jarrod said:

Yes.  Sony will hold out as long as possible to try and reach overall profitability (emphasis on try, they won't make it with PS3), and Microsoft's essentially considering Kinect to be a mid cycle "new generation" already.  The next Wii will also probably not be a generational hardware leap over 360/PS3 (although it should easily outclass both systems), so that gives both some breathing room too.  I think XB3/PS4 will be positioned around the 4k/1080p3D television shift and possibly even HVD for PS4.

Wii 2: 2012 (PS3-plus spec, Blu-ray, 1080p/720p3D standard)

PS4/XB3: 2014-2016 (next gen spec, Blu-ray, possibly HVD for PS4, 4k/1080p3D standard)

But will they let Nintendo get two-plus years in on them like that, or will it just guarantee that the whole concept of lateral generations is broken forever?

I'd say Nintendo's early movement will force them to do so as well, and that they will focus on building devices that "perfect" the tech in the PS3 and 360 (that is to say the all-elusive 1080p @ 60fps, get 3D's resolution and framerate up to comparable levels)

Of course, that's under the assumption that Kinect won't last as a hardware booster (which has certainly proven to be the case outside of North America, just that the Americas boost is enough overall). I agree that Sony will last longer, but i'm still doubting they'll make it longer than 7 years at absolute most without a replacement

Well, Nintendo jumping the next cycle will definitely put pressure on them for sure, but I just think financial and market realities will hold things back longer than usual.  Publishers aren't in any hurry to see a next gen hardware shift, except Epic Games (and their reasonings are all too transparent).  With a Wii 2 in place, there'd be even less incentive for 3rd parties to jump full force into next gen R&D and engine/toolchain development.  Too many have already gotten burned badly from today's fractured, high cost console market, everyone's going to be much more cautious next time.

I also think Kinect is going to have sustained impact.  A Wii-like hardware approach to 360 and PS3 would've probably done MS and Sony no favors, which is also probably why they simply grafted their motion control extensions to the current systems rather than tying them to tweaked new hardware.  Worked out for MS, not for Sony, but that has more to do with the commitment each had than anything imo... if we were going to see next gen hardware from either anytime soon though, I think they'd have saved Kinect and Move for that.