| Zlejedi said: Yes. Unless Poland wins Euro 2012 which would herald coming of doomsday ;) X360 will reach 65M this year PS3 will finish year above 60 milions. 2012 will see price drop to sweet spot of 200$ for PS3 and similar responce from Microsft which will keep both at 15M/year level. At this point of time both will be in 75-80M range. 2013 will be a launch of next gen at which point X360/PS3 will take the role of PS2 as a consoles for poor people and for emerging markets. PS2 sold 30M units from 1st Jan 2007 to end of Feb 2011 (plus few milions undertracking on VGC) Do you still think they won't reach 200M long term ? |
It all boils down to opinion, really, but I find your theory highly unlikely.
This year, PS3's exclusives aren't gonna help its YOY drops any and 360 is holding on to a faint weekly YOY gain likely to be decimated come June. Price cuts won't be able to remedy these falls for either of them.
In 2012, with the looming threat of the Bii and general aging, the HD consoles will start completely collapsing like Wii is right now. 15m sounds more ridiculous than anything else. A $199 price cut might remedy this somewhat for PS3, but it really isn't some kind of magical charm that'll fix everything.
As for afterwards, the HD consoles have never had the staying power of the PS2 anywhere and most likely never will. Not in the developing markets, either.
170m, to me, sounds overly hopeful and 200m simply fantastic.
I'm willing to respect your stance though. I suppose it could theoretically happen.
“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx
