With the rise of smartphones, Nintendo could be in real trouble in the future. I mean, videogames are all Nintendo has, and the DS must make up atleast 50% of their revenues. I don't expect a new handheld generation after this one... the 3DS and the NGP are the last... also, based on actions by Sony (Playstation Suite, Xperia Play), they are thinking the same way as me.
If true, this means that, unless Nintendo diversify, the only product that they will have is their home-console. Both Microsoft and Sony have shown in the last year or so that they're committed to merging their different products through networks, media sharing, etc... Nintendo doesn't have that ability (they can reach out to third parties, but this is obviously more costly than having your own products). Both Sony and Microsoft have also been aggressively targeting both the casual, and the core market. Microsoft, in particular, have done exceptionally well: they pretty much own the core market in the USA and UK (1st and 3rd most important market), have a strong share throughout the rest of Europe, and, since Kinect, have also managed to tap into the casual market.
I do think that unless Nintendo changes their business model, the golden days are very much behind them. Maybe if they were to go with the Disney route, they could diversify into markets such as television, movies, theme parks, stores, etc. The issue is, with only one product out there (the home console), they will be less likely to take the risks necessary to produce the next Wii. Wii exists because DS was so profitable.
