I'll do #2 first since technically if I'm not mistaken MS only ever said "shipped" when it came to 12 million by July 1st. It should be easy since they could just ship however many they need to meet their target. However, I don't know if retailers will go for it again. They still haven't sold the 10 million MS shipped by last Christmas much less the million shipped since then. MS was able to get away with that trick last time since it was the first time they did it, retail 360 inventory was lower, and MS could play the Vista card. Given that at current sales rates MS has already shipped enough 360's to last through August I don't know how easy it will be to stuff another million systems into store inventories. The sad thing MS had promised 15 million by July 1st before lowering it to 12-13 million which by sane business practise is still unreachable.
As to #1 I'd say the 360 will hit 10 million in June, or about 1 month before the Wii does and about 6 months late.
