*In what order will The Systems Sell In 2011?*

[theprof00]

kowenicki said:

Mummelmann said:

Pavolink said:

Mummelmann said:

If it gets outsold for the entire year otherwise, it really won't matter in the totals. It was supposed to have a flat year in 2010 according to everyone and their grandmothers and ended up around one million above my much flogged 17 million prediction.

Like I said; winning the holidays might not net you the overall win for an entire year. The fact that it is becoming nearly irrelevant in Japan won't be of much help either.

And the year hasn't ended. So we don't know any strategies that the companies have. Is doing very good against redesigns, new controllers and lot of quality games. We don't know what could be annunced tomorrow, in two weeks, or any day along the year.

We may very well end up with a threeway virtual tie, its not unlikely. But I don't think the Wii has any real chance of significantly outselling either HD console this year unless they start taking measures very soon. If they don't do anything till fall/winter there may simply be too much ground to cover.

About Japan, I forgot to add; all home consoles will be irrelevant within two years time there, handhelds are simply stealing the entire market.

Sooooo true!  I know this is a pet subject of mine but....

This cant be underestimated.

5th gen sales... Japan Home console sales represented 26% of the global market

6th gen sales... Japan Home console sales represented 15% of the global market

7th gen sales... japan Home console sales currently represent 10% of the gloibal market... and shrinking.

This isnt just because Other global sales are increasing (thought they are)... Japan sales are falling and will surely continue to do so.  

Will be VERY interesting to see what will happen to Home console sales and software support in Japan during the next gen.

what's your definition of gen? Some period of years? Product? Also, though you entertain the idea of Other global sales increasing, do you have a link showing how sales increasing elsewhere isn't marginalizing Japan home console sales?

I've known that Japan is moving toward portables for a while now, and I'm *pretty* sure they are buying fewer home consoles, but I guess my real question is, "what conclusions are you making from this data". You haven't really said anything specific although you did quote and bold an idea, your comments at the bottom don't seem to fully reflect the bolded statement.

What will be interesting, and interesting in what way, and why would it be so interesting when it's a trend that's been happening for years now? 

What is so interesting about some implied dissolution of Japanese home console genres and/or software?