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[Immortal]

Jay520 said:

Camparing the PS3 to the Wii is wrong for the following:

 

• The Wii being a casual console will naturally have much lopsided sales in the holidays where casuals are most actives. The PS3 is more hardcore oriented and its sales won't drop off much in the middle of the year, as opposed to the Wii. Last year, PS3 had the smallest drop off at $299, I don't it'll drop off at $199.
• The Wii dropped from 249 to 199, while the PS3 will drop from 299 to 199. That's double the drop that the Wii had.

A $199 price point would be Huge. 

Me personally, I don't believe it will drop to $199 this year, heck it might not even drop to $249. I could see them waiting until 2012 to drop $100.

I agree that a $249 price point won't push the PS3 over 360. If PS3 drops to $249, then 360 might just drop to $199. I don't care though. The PS3 is enjoyng very healthy sales going neck and neck with 360. And I see PS3 having the smallest dropoff as the dryspell picks up. Last year 360 dropped off more than PS3. This year, I could see it following the same pattern, seeing as how Kinect is casual and casuals don't buy as many consoles around Summer time. It should pick back up come the holidays, rivaling the Wii (unless Wii gets price cut, New mario, etc.).

I don't see how your first point makes a difference - Wii's first holiday was boosted then second was massively down. The holidays followed the same logic as the rest of the year in terms of its decline. Secondly, PS3 won't be able to drop to $199 from $299. Sales will be unacceptably low if they wait that long. They'll probably go to $249 first.

Also, the PS3 is already suffering from relatively high YOY dropoffs. Without a $249 price, it'll only get worse through the year as the price cut gets older. And even right now, it's rather artificially boosted by some retailer offers here and there.

Not to say that the console isn't doing well, though - it's making the Wii look like a joke, D:.