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I agree that if you change the formula of a franchise then you can usually expect a decline in popularity.  That being said, to stay stagnant would be death as well.

NSMBW worked because gamers hadn't recieved that basic gameplay for so long.  If that was the only kind of mario game released from the original until now you could garauntee a drop in popularity.  It's basically a middle ground.  Don't branch off to far, and don't stay the same.  Even nsmbw had the new multiplayer element (and it was great I will say).