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I the PS3 failed then xbox and Wii would be more evenly matched.  Xbox would have stolen the PS3 audience (the ps exclusives would choose Xbox over Wii) and Wii would have the smae audience for the most part.

The Xbox therefore, would have no financial reason to go and cater to the wii audience with Kinect or it's new family friendly marketing campaign.

The Industry, conceptually, would have steered the same path I believe.  But, the generation afterward may see rise to a new competitor given the large market being eaten by only two guys.