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robzo100 on 23 February 2011
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Ail said:
trestres said:
robzo100 said:

 

We only have a limited experience when it comes to game systems selling for spectacularly long lifetimes.  Meaning we are being too rigid by expecting a game console to sell over a 150 million only by taking a similar path that PS2 did.

Wii could very well sell not as well during it's first half (first 5 years during the gen. at the time) but then have a better second half (the last 5 years, selling once the next gen has already started).  It's hard to say.  Wii is such a different kind of machine than PS2, so the pattern should be expected to not be similar if anything.

Sorry but that's impossible.


I have to agree, it just ain't happening......

The Wii has 4 years left, and baring a huge price cut, sales will keep going down at 20% rate or more per year... ( things might actually go even faster in Japan, because once Zelda is out, and with the release of the 3DS, the Wii will be officially dead over there...).

I feel ya, but no one is stressing how different these machines are when it comes to audiences.  We all know they're different, but we seem to ignore it when it comes to tracking how the pattern of sales should be for a 150 million seller.

Wii will eventually have 30 million software sellers (Sports Resort and Mario Kart Wii) by the time next gens come (and few 20 mils), or actually by the end of next holiday season.  PS2 did NOT have those kind of software sellers.  The software offering is way more casual and accessible.  Maybe that will entice people to keep buying and give Wii a better and possibly longer second half of good sales.  Seems impossible to have a longer and better second half than PS2, but who knows man.

I think Wii has one thing similar to PS2.  If the Wii 2 starts out badly, like PS3, then Wii might keep selling.  If PS3 were to have been very affordable like PS2, then maybe PS2 would not have shined as much.  If Wii 2 is unattractive for whatever reason in the beggining like PS3, then maybe Wii will shine longer.  I have no idea, I just know deep down (not in an emotional way heh) that there is no reason why a sales pattern for two totally different kinds of machines should be similar even if they are reaching a similar goal