How close will PS360 come to Wii??

[milkyjoe]

Seece said:

Viper1 said:

Seece said:

X360 in Americas and PS3 in EMEAA more specifically.

Currently:

X360 is 10.2 million behind Wii in Americas
PS3 is 10.3 million behind Wii in EMEAA

X360 outsold Wii in Americas this week by over 50k, and PS3 outsold Wii in EMEAA by 23k.

In America, since June 2010 360 has been dominant, save for December when there were shortages. But January resumed normal practice. PS3 is making huge strides in EMEAA, Asia ect, and will sell bucket loads when it's £149 and lower.

So how close will X360 get to Wii in Americas, and how close will PS3 get to Wii in EMEAA?

Well, if we use your numbers....

X360 will pass Wii in the US in 204 weeks.  About 4 years.
PS3 will pass Wii in EMEAA in 447 weeks.  About 8.6 years.

And that's just assuming that Nintendo will sit on their ass and do absolutely nothing to increase sales between now and those dates.

It's also assuming MS and Sony won't do anything either. And this weeks sales was just to give a current state of the market, so you can't extrapolate.

Fact of matter is, X360 is now the #1 choice in America and PS3 is getting stronger. Whilst Wii gets weaker and weaker.

What you can do is use numbers like that to suggest how likely either console getting anywhere close would be, and what they would need to sell to do it, and seeing as this thread is based entirely on if...

IF the 360 outsells the Wii in the US by 50k per week it will take 204 weeks to equal the Wii's total.

IF the 360 outsells the Wii in the US by 100k per week it will take 102 weeks to equal the Wii's total.

IF the 360 outsells the Wii in the US by 150k per week it will take 68 weeks to equal the Wii's total.

I don't see much point going any higher than that, as 150k per week is already in the land of fantasy....

As for the PS3 in EMEAA, and the same idea...

IF the PS3 outsells the Wii in EMEAA by 25k (we'll be generous and round up from the current rate) per week it will take 412 weeks to equal the Wii's total.

IF the PS3 outsells the Wii in EMEAA by 50k per week it will take 206 weeks to equal the Wii's total.

IF the PS3 outsells the Wii in EMEAA by 100k per week it will take 103 weeks to equal the Wii's total.

IF the PS3 outsells the Wii in EMEAA by 150k per week it will take 69 weeks to equal the Wii's total.

So now you have to ask, what are the respective weekly gaps likely to be? Are they going to grow, are they going to shrink, or are they going to stay the same? The higher the gaps, the closer they will get, but the chances of a sustained higher per week gap are practically nil outside of the holiday season IMO, thus reducing the chances of either console making major inroads to those 10million gaps.

So we'll basically have to wait and see... But if they are to make a decent dent in those gaps anytime soon, the 360 and the PS3 need to start selling a lot more, or the Wii has to decline to practically zero sales every week.