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We only have a limited experience when it comes to game systems selling for spectacularly long lifetimes.  Meaning we are being too rigid by expecting a game console to sell over a 150 million only by taking a similar path that PS2 did.

Wii could very well sell not as well during it's first half (first 5 years during the gen. at the time) but then have a better second half (the last 5 years, selling once the next gen has already started).  It's hard to say.  Wii is such a different kind of machine than PS2, so the pattern should be expected to not be similar if anything.