2008 at Bruceongames

[Kasz216]

Gamerace said:

Kasz216 said:

Thats the thing Bruce.

Good analysts use data to make their predictions. You've got to site some consumer report studys, NPD, Nielson, TNS, there are all sorts of reports out there on these things.

Come on man, that's the first thing they teach you in consumer marketing. You base your trends on hard numbers and comparisons from the most similar industries, you don't start pulling from random industries that have nothing to do with it.

Well actually the first thing they tell you is to never lie and always report what the numbers you got suggest, because otherwise nobody is going to look at youre credibly, but i mean that implies you use numbers.

If you want people to give you a second look instead of just glancing over it, your going to have to do some hard work, read some journal articles and some released reports and put them in articles like this.

Actually, I think his problem, and analysts like Michael Pachter, is that they are so tied to historical data that they don't want to accept that Nintendo is redefining the industry as a whole. The past no longer equals the future.

Like Apple totally reshaped the music industry with Ipod, so shall Nintendo with Wii/DS. It's like taking past results and saying X label will have the greatest year ever because of it's CD line-up except in reality less people are buying cds so in fact X label will not have it's greatest year because it's songs were not on itunes. The VG industry is very different to that, but the change will be similar. Those companies that continue to try to do business as usual will likewise see declining returns.

Nah, Patchers problem is that he's reading the historical data wrong. Instead of comparing like consoles he's comparing similarly named conoles.

The PS3 is the Playstation cosnole, so it's like the Playstation 2 and Playstation 1. Nintendo's market share has continued to drop, so it will continue to drop. That's the lazy man's way of looking at historical data.

Really, historical sales data should be applied by sales trends as a 3rd indicator. Compare sales to similar sales and extrapolate from there. Then further modify this by your opinions which are backed up by studies like the Nielson and the NPD study, and any other constant consumer reports that are available about why people adopt HD tvs, HD content adoption and HD usage on home consoles.

Most important of all... use the Warren Buffet factor. Look for the company that has the most and strongest sustainable advantages. He's only looking at one sustainable advantage while ignoring many others. Right now Nintendo just owns way more sustainable advantages then the competition, and until you can find some hard data through consumer marketing means, i'd say it would be extremely irresponsible to proffesionally say the Wii will flop after 2009. You can't just point at consumer adoption of HD Tvs without looking at any surveys that say what these things will do.

Luckily he isn't likely getting paid, but since he seems to want people to view him as a proffesional it would be better if he did things proffesionally.

Instead of a daily article, perhaps a weekly article with research would be better. Sure research is harder then just opining about any opinion you have... but the results are much more worth it and of note.