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It will shrink in warpspeed if you ask me. People who bought the 360 got it because they like games like Gears, MW3 and Halo and not because they want to play casual Kinect games. Considering the exclusive games Sony has in the pipline it will be very hard for core gamers not to get tempted into buying a ps3 as well, especially with the new found focus of MS on the casual market. 

Off course you could say MS is bringing in a whole new audience with Kinect, but they are also alienating they current fanbase. Besides it are mostly the current 360 owners who bought the Kinect in the first place.